Getting Lucky with Trump

 

The US, as a country, should count its blessings that Trump was the president over the last  almost 4 years. As crude and rough as Trump may be, the US has been incredibly lucky. His narcissistic nature, as painful it may be to witness and deal with the consequences of decisions made by him, are exactly that – all about him. Fealty to him is required; Kim Jong-Un fell in love with him and his stable genius. He seems to have an infinite need for praise and admiration. While revolting (yet slightly interesting from a psychological point of view) this is actually a great thing.

Trump’s infinite need to be loved and adored, combined with the need to embarrass anyone and anything that was not sufficiently obedient and full of praise, is what has prevented the US from bidding farewell to the American Experiment.

Trump needs to be the best, and to have the biggest crowds. It got so bad that even Fox (yes, Fox) called him out on it. 

During the 2016 presidential campaign, his need to have adoring crowds won over the need to visit swing states where his presence might make a difference in the elections.

 Trump was willing to cancel campaign stops in these swing states but would go to places where he would be virtually guaranteed large, enthusiastic crowds. 

Trump –  likely unwittingly – tapped into the enormous segment of the US population that has been (and is) completely forgotten, or actively screwed by those in power. Over  72 million people voted for him. Assuming there was a 67% turnout, this means that 107 million people out of 235 million eligible voters side with him.

A number of those people are true republicans, but a significant number of those people feel disenfranchised and don’t feel that either party particularly cares about them, and voted for Trump, not the Republican party. Additionally, lots of democratic voters have been screwed over by the same powers, but happened to vote for Democrats. That doesn’t mean that part of Trump’s message – “they are screwing you (“and only I can fix it”) doesn’t resonate. It resonates because it is true, but a revulsion with  Trumps disgusting behavior very well may have made them pull the other lever.

 

Although Trump lost to Biden, the underlying dynamic, a large number of voters feeling screwed by (to use shorthand) Washington remain. The “Deep State” moniker makes sense. The disenfranchised know they are getting the short end of the stick, but it is essentially impossible to determine who is doing this to them. A vague reference to a large actor is the appropriate label.

It may be tempting to think that Biden will be a return to normalcy and decency, and it certainly may appear so on the surface. However, the dark passenger, the underlying force behind Trump’s election hasn’t left the stage. Income, wealth and opportunity inequalities are not going to change simply because Biden is president. Mathematically, just by virtue of having huge wealth and income inequality at t=0, it will only get bigger absent large changes, which Biden is unlikely to make.

Trump surrounded himself with people like himself (as we all unwisely tend to do), and while a number of them would like to flex their muscles, Trump was the boss and needed the limelight himself, and in a bizarre way put a lid on some of his cabinet’s potential courses of action. Would we have been better off if Bolton had free reign and the full support of Trump?

So then: why were we so lucky to have Trump? 

In addition to the motivation of financial gain, Trump was in it to satisfy and grow his infinite ego even larger – to infinity and beyond. 

 Every tweet, every statement is about how he, Trump, is the best, the greatest, smartest etc. etc. Anything short of total admiration was considered an insult. The people in his circle needed in effect to pledge their loyalty to him. The fact that he is a public servant (and on occasion is expected to act like one) did not even enter his consciousness.

And for that we should be grateful.

The time for the disenfranchised to be satisfied with just having a cheerleader who for four long years lashes out at the invisible Deep State at regular intervals very well may be over. Commiseration is satisfying for a certain amount of time after which an often-implicit choice is made; Put up or shut up.

The disenfranchised, after years of having the guy at the helm preach virtually daily that the “deep state” wasn’t just out to get him but also them may be longing for action, not talk.  And if you choose to believe his basic premise that the “deep state” was out to get him, his loss at the ballot box only validates that theory.

So we have been lucky that all he wanted was praise, money and glory.

However, Trump - likely unknowingly - may very well have primed over a hundred million people that it is time to go kick some ass. Whether the enemy is real or imagined is secondary – it is easy to make one up especially now that a zillion twitter followers have been taught to simply believe what he says, facts be damned. A Twitter “Disputed” label only fans the flames. Hey, if the establishment disputes it, it must be true!

Assuming the playing field remains as slanted as it is now, and  the anger of the disenfranchised  continues to burn hot, we can easily expect a new Trump–and the next Trump, Trump 2 (let’s refer to his spiritual successor as T2) may be wired differently.

If T2 is not in it to stroke his/her ego, but to instead accumulate and actually exercise power, we are in trouble. “We” in this context means the world, not just the US. Domestically the current unhappiness of over 100 million well-armed, disenfranchised people who don’t have a whole lot to lose, is just waiting to be directed and unleashed. Globally, add to this the ever-present nuclear football at close hand to the president, and it is unlikely that it is T2’s mission to save humanity. Quite the opposite actually.

Biden – the “moderate” wing of the democratic party really - is like a child’s Band-Aid on a stage-4 cancer. The smiley face is nice, but the underlying disease is progressing at an increasing rate. Unless the underlying conditions are not just addressed but actually start to be materially remedied, the chance of a T2 emergence is not only possible but likely.

Once the victory parties (to which they are not invited but can watch on TV) and the fire works (id.)  are over, the large group that is not in a position to purchase politicians, doesn’t materially own assets and hasn’t seen a real income increase in decades will feel the same way as before. And the new guy doesn’t even talk about the deep state – something that at least gave a sense of unity to the deplorables.

We are facing 2 options – both painful albeit to different groups

Option 1 is to dawdle until T2 comes on the scene and takes control. It is impossible to even guess which groups would win and which group would lose, and it is quite possible that in the T2 scenario there wouldn’t be any winners.

Option 2 is structural change to the playing field.

It is highly unlikely that a new administration will be able to structurally change the slope of the playing field because of the incestuous relationships and revolving doors between the money interests and DC. There may be some tweaks here and there but absent material changes (which would significantly and adversely impact the 1% - and therefore won’t happen) it is just scribbling in the margins.

In the meanwhile, the unhappy cohort will be still be there and

biding its time until that person comes on the scene who will direct and unleash the pent-up multi-generational anger.

The change that is coming is drastic in either scenario. It will need to be drastic on the political end of things – make real changes to the distribution of opportunities, wealth and income, or it will be drastic on the streets.