Posts

Showing posts from 2013

Global CIO - A macro view

Finally the day has come that your Ivy League (please note that the spell checker capitalized that, not me) education and hard work are paying off: Congratulations, you were just appointed Global CIO.   You are now responsible for investing all of the world’s financial assets and, given your history as a highly educated CIO, steeped in finance and highly experienced managing other pools of capital your goal is to create a diversified portfolio with uncorrelated assets. On the first day of work you decided to use a three step process in setting up the portfolio 1) see what you have, 2) determine what you want to have and 3) make changes to create the desired portfolio. The first thing you do is send your star analyst to give you a rundown of what is in the portfolio you inherited. S/he starts out with collating and aggregating the portfolio which consists of stocks, bonds, and a number of derivatives such as futures, options and credit default swaps as well as a number of hedg

Some (un)intended consequences of mortgage refinancing

As mortgage rates are decreasing and households take on mortgages with lower rates there are several consequences, not all of them obvious. The amount of interest paid, C.P goes down which at first glance is a good thing. The consumer now has the option to allocate the difference between the old and the new payment to other purposes. The downside of lower payments is that somebody else is now receiving less, and likely that somebody else is a pension fund, life Insurance Company or another entity which needs long dated cash flows. Chances are that as the homeowner refinances the NPV of his/her pension or insurance decreases at the same time. The economic effect of the increased cash flows to the household sector and the decreased cash flows to pension funds, life insurance companies et al . is not symmetrical because the household sector has a high marginal propensity to consume – they spend most of the savings – whereas the financial savings institutions buy financial assets (in